Christmas the deadliest day of the year: study
A new U.S. analysis of mortality rates during different times of year found that people are more likely to die during the holidays — notably on Christmas and New Year’s Day — and researchers cannot explain the yearly spike.They offer some thoughts as to what might explain this phenomenon, from folks postponing shuffling off this mortal coil until after the holidays (unlikely) to overcrowded ERs (slightly more plausible). It's an interesting observation, but there are simply too many factors to draw any conclusions yet. Between the dramatic increase in travel, especially at a time of the year where weather can make traveling more dangerous; to the general stress induced by the holidays; to even the possibility that more folks choose to check out due to holiday depression; there are so many possibilities and so little data...
After analyzing all official United States death certificates over the 25-year period between 1979 and 2004, a trio of sociologists identified an excess of 42,325 natural deaths — that is, above and beyond the normal seasonal winter increase — in the two weeks starting with Christmas.
This part made me wonder, too:
In general, Mr. Phillips said the team’s analysis of some 57.5-million death certificates shows the chance of dying during this holiday period increases “somewhere between 3% and 9%, depending on the demographic group you’re looking at, and somewhere between 1% and 10%, depending on what cause of death you’re looking at.”
Your chance of dying increases at a different rate depending on which group you fall into? And the rate of increase depends on cause of death? Something tells me that suicides increase dramatically this time of year - between folks that are alone on the holidays or people overcome by stress. Perhaps a more useful metric would be a correlation between the holidays and stress levels - although that's hardly a novel concept, that one's stress increases this time of year. Another question would be how many alcohol related deaths - fights, DWIs, etc. - occur this time of year versus the rest of the year. Something tells me that the rate of folks overindulging skyrockets this time of year...
In any case, it's an interesting anecdote, and a reminder to be careful this holiday season!
That is all.
12 comments:
Just pointing out:
After analyzing all official United States death certificates over the 25-year period between 1979 and 2004, a trio of sociologists identified an excess of 42,325 natural deaths — that is, above and beyond the normal seasonal winter increase — in the two weeks starting with Christmas.
I'm guessing suicides and such were not counted.
Well, I'm hosting the extended in-laws for the second holiday in a row, so it could get deadly...
It's Christmas the biggest travel day of the year?
Add to that the likelihood of snow & ice covered roads, darkness, over-invibeing, stress, rushing around to places you don't usually travel to and you've got all the ingredients for a car crash.
As pointed out by mopar:
"identified an excess of 42,325 natural deaths"
Natural deaths don't include suicides, car accidents, homicides, gun shot wounds, etc.
That is what makes this statistic SO anomalous. It is deaths by natural causes, which we didn't think people had any control over.
Heh.
I am reminded of the Starfire Swords booth at King Richard's Faire.
While chatting with "Tiny" (6'5", 400 lb guy), someone asked if anyone had ever picked something up off the counter and ran off with it.
Tiny responded by saying it happened once. He picked up a throwing axe and said, "I stopped him with this. He died of natural causes".
He got a blank look.
"I threw the axe at him. NATURALLY he died".
It got a healthy chuckle...
One contributing factor could be the "It doesn't count, it's the Holidays" excuse as people eat and drink like there's no tomorrow.
And then there is no tomorrow.
As an EMS provider, I've noticed there are a lot more older folks passing on in the winter than the summer. I would say one factor is the weather. Winter weather tends to exacerbate existing health issues, especially respiratory problems. Even if you spend all your time in a climate-controlled environment (nursing home, etc.), uncontrollable factors like humidity variations still have an effect. Also, the shorter period of daylight has a psychological effect, and increased depression leads folks to just "give up".
Add to that the increased number of heart attacks from people shoveling snow (a fairly common trigger), and it's not really all that surprising.
Ok, guys, I'm beginning to doubt your ability to read and understand medical studies.
There is a seasonal bump in wintertime, and it was accounted for. There is a bump due to snow shoveling, (which is almost identical to the one for lawn mowing, though snow shoveling is mostly restricted to northern tier states.), and it is also accounted for.
These were/are deaths which cause a significant statistical anomaly, apart from the factors which can be controlled or factored out.
These are "natural" deaths without appreciable outside causes, like heart attacks caused by exertion, or the increase in deaths associated with respiratory infections due to the season.
These are deaths that otherwise have to apparent contributing cause, apart from the time of year.
Depression and SAD might play a part here, certainly, but the deaths are not suicides, homicides, or accidents, and they are not part and parsel of the typical wintertime increase due to higher respiratory infection rates.
I think STRESS plays a factor... the in-laws, the missing gifts, the wrong gifts, etc... Just my .02 worth!
I've noticed this phenomenon for years now. I refer to as "God's end of year clearance sale".
What I think goes on is that a lot of people, elderly, terminally ill, or whatever "hold on" until after Christmas. They have one last holiday with their families and friends and then let go.
Even people who don't celebrate holidays seem to be affected.
It's just more proof of the triumph is the mind and the spirit over the physical.
As Jake can attest, we're a lot busier these last two weeks than we'd normally expect to be.
An interesting study would be to see if the number of deaths between say Thanksgiving and Christmas is lower than expected.
Oh my....just wait until they correlate age with dying.
They'll have their hands full trying to explain how to reduce the chances of old folks dying of old age. And, that old folks are more likely to die of old age during the holdiays.
They're going to put ancient Santa out of business. Can't ride that sleigh when you're a geezer - might get a stroke!
Wow.
Maybe they can wait one more year for you & me (or actually, our children) and then they can have at it with their useless statistics & meaningless solutions to said useless statistics.
Last year on New Years day, I almost amputated a finger because I'm a complete and total dumbass. It was to the point that is freaked out the PAs, attending and the hand specialist they called in. This is all to say, I was there because I did an exceptionally dumb thing because I was bored. This would be filed under "Misadventure" any othr time.
Don't underestimate the possibility that the dumbass factor may just be higher at the end of the year.
:-D
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